Abstract:In order to explore the quality changing trend and predict the shelf life of preserved pears stored at different temperatures, the changes of color, hardness and sensory score during storage at 25, 35, 45 or 55 ℃ were analyzed. Meanwhile, the key indexes were fitted using kinetic equations, anda shelf-life prediction model was established by combining the Arrhenius equation. Moreover, the reasons for the deterioration of key indexes were explored according to the changes of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF) content during storage. The results showed that with the prolongation of storage time, the quality of preserved pears gradually decreased, mainly reflected in the changes in color, with a faster decline at a higher temperature. The L* values of preserved pears decreased from 43.57 to 43.51, 39.09, 38.24 and 31.29, respectively, after beingstored at 25, 35, 45 and 55 ℃ for 60 days. Pearson correlation analysis revealed that the key index associated with the deterioration of preserved pear quality was L* value, and the degree of fitting with the first-order kinetic equation was the highest. Based on this, a shelf life prediction model with the L* value as the key index is established using Arrhenius equation, in which the activation energy (Ea) of L* value was 71.590 kJ/mol, the pre-index factor k0 was -1.34×109 kJ/mol, and the relative error of the model was less than 6%. In addition, it was found that the content of 5-HMF in preserved pears gradually increased during storage. These data showed that L* value was the key index of quality deterioration of preserved pears during storage, and the shelf-life prediction model established based on it was relatively reliable, and the main reason for the gradual decline of L* value was the occurrence of the Maillard reaction. The results of this study provide some reference for exploring the quality deterioration pattern of preserved pears during storage and determining their shelf life, and offer preliminary guidance for delaying their quality deterioration.