Safety Risk Assessment of Guangzhou’s Meat and Meat Products Based on GRA-ISM-HMM
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Abstract:
Using the food safety risk monitoring data of meat and meat product samples in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2020, a safety risk assessment model for meat and meat products was constructed to understand the food safety risks and time-varying characteristics of meat and meat products in Guangzhou during this period. The gray correlation analysis method and the explanatory structure model are adopted to establish the risk index, and the implied risk state behind the observation is explored based on the value of this index as the observation of the Hidden Markov Model. The analysis results show that the results of the composite risk index for all samples from 2015 to 2020 are between [0, 0.45], and the overall risk is small, with the highest risk in 2019; ranking the risk index shows that the risk rank from 2015 to 2020 is [1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1]; the hidden risk rank for these six years is [0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0] obtained by HMM analysis, which is consistent with the observed risk results. And the HMM predicts that the risk level of 2021 is 1, which means that the risk of meat and meat products in Guangzhou develops toward a good trend. Finally, the analysis of the causes of risk differences was conducted, and it was found that there were differences among meat product classifications. The risk indices of salami, chicken and bacon were higher than those of other categories, and the increased detection of salami and bacon in 2019 was a reason for the increased risk. Overall, Guangzhou meat and meat products are less risky, but still need to be monitored for improvement.
