Salmonella Contamination Rate in Food based on A Hierarchical Bayesian Model
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Abstract:
To systematically investigate the prevalence of Salmonella in food in mainland China, a hierarchical Bayesian model based on data obtained from literature mining was established to reliably estimate the Salmonella contamination rate of commercially available food. The average Salmonella contamination rate of the examined food was 5.91% in 2004~2018 (95% confidence interval, 4.69%~7.27%). The contamination rate fluctuated from 2.02% to 8.29%. The highest contamination rate of 8.45% was found in raw meat and meat products. In Sichuan province, Shanghai city, and Heilongjiang province, food contamination by Salmonella was high (12.05%, 11.53%, and 10.68%, respectively). The main pathogenic types were S. enterica serotype 1 and Salmonella infecting animals and humans. The main species of contaminating Salmonella were S. enteritidis, S. derby, and S. typhimurium, with contamination rates of 22.10%, 15.23%, and 12.54%, respectively. Health and market regulators should strengthen the monitoring of meat and meat products according to local conditions and formulate preventive strategies for the main pathogenic types and dominant species of Salmonella to ensure food hygiene and safety.
