该研究旨在利用广州食品安全风险监测2015年至2020年针对肉及肉制品样本的检测数据，构建肉及肉制品的安全风险评估模型，从而了解广州市该段时间内肉及肉制品的食品安全风险及其时变特点。该研究采取灰色关联分析方法和解释结构模型建立风险指数，并基于该指标值作为隐马尔可夫模型的观测值探讨观测背后的隐含风险状态。分析结果显示，2015~2020年所有样本综合风险指数结果都在[0，0.45]之间，总体风险都较小，其中2019年风险最高；将风险指数进行等级划分，显示2015~2020年风险等级为[1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1]；通过HMM分析得到这六年的隐藏风险等级为[0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0]，与观测风险结果一致，且HMM预测2021年风险等级为1，即表明广州肉及肉制品风险往良好态势发展。最后，进行风险差异原因分析，发现各肉制品分类之间有差异，其中腊肠、鸡肉和腊肉的风险指数较高于其他种类，而2019年增加腊肠和腊肉的检测是风险增加的一个原因。总体来说，广州肉及肉制品风险较小，但依旧需要监督改善。

Using the food safety risk monitoring data of meat and meat product samples in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2020, a safety risk assessment model for meat and meat products was constructed to understand the food safety risks and time-varying characteristics of meat and meat products in Guangzhou during this period. The gray correlation analysis method and the explanatory structure model are adopted to establish the risk index, and the implied risk state behind the observation is explored based on the value of this index as the observation of the Hidden Markov Model. The analysis results show that the results of the composite risk index for all samples from 2015 to 2020 are between [0, 0.45], and the overall risk is small, with the highest risk in 2019; ranking the risk index shows that the risk rank from 2015 to 2020 is [1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1]; the hidden risk rank for these six years is [0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0] obtained by HMM analysis, which is consistent with the observed risk results. And the HMM predicts that the risk level of 2021 is 1, which means that the risk of meat and meat products in Guangzhou develops toward a good trend. Finally, the analysis of the causes of risk differences was conducted, and it was found that there were differences among meat product classifications. The risk indices of salami, chicken and bacon were higher than those of other categories, and the increased detection of salami and bacon in 2019 was a reason for the increased risk. Overall, Guangzhou meat and meat products are less risky, but still need to be monitored for improvement.

广州市科技重点研发计划项目（202103000039）