基于层次贝叶斯法的沙门氏菌食品污染率统计分析

Salmonella Contamination Rate in Food based on A Hierarchical Bayesian Model

摘要:

为系统性研究我国大陆范围内食品中沙门氏菌污染状况，基于贝叶斯估计方法，利用文献挖掘（Literature mining）所得的数据，建立层次贝叶斯模型（Hierarchical Bayesian model），对我国市售食品中沙门氏菌污染率进行可靠统计。结果表明，我国大陆地区市售食品的沙门氏菌平均污染率，2004~2018年为5.91%（95%置信区间为4.69%~7.27%），在2.02%~8.29%范围内波动；市售食品中污染率最高的是肉与肉制品，污染率为8.45%；黑龙江省、上海市和四川省是食品沙门氏菌污染严重地区，食品污染率分别为12.05%、11.53%和10.68%；肠道沙门氏菌亚群Ⅰ，以及既可感染人又可感染动物的沙门氏菌种群是主要的病原菌类型；肠炎沙门氏菌（Salmonella enteritidis）、德尔卑沙门氏菌（Salmonella derby）和鼠伤寒沙门氏菌（Salmonella typhimurium）是主要的食品污染菌种类型，食品污染率分别为22.10%、15.23%和12.54%。因此，卫生和市场监管部门应加强肉与肉制品的监管，注重因地制宜，针对主要病原菌类型和优势菌种制定防范策略，以保障食品卫生安全。

Abstract:

To systematically investigate the prevalence of Salmonella in food in mainland China, a hierarchical Bayesian model based on data obtained from literature mining was established to reliably estimate the Salmonella contamination rate of commercially available food. The average Salmonella contamination rate of the examined food was 5.91% in 2004~2018 (95% confidence interval, 4.69%~7.27%). The contamination rate fluctuated from 2.02% to 8.29%. The highest contamination rate of 8.45% was found in raw meat and meat products. In Sichuan province, Shanghai city, and Heilongjiang province, food contamination by Salmonella was high (12.05%, 11.53%, and 10.68%, respectively). The main pathogenic types were S. enterica serotype 1 and Salmonella infecting animals and humans. The main species of contaminating Salmonella were S. enteritidis, S. derby, and S. typhimurium, with contamination rates of 22.10%, 15.23%, and 12.54%, respectively. Health and market regulators should strengthen the monitoring of meat and meat products according to local conditions and formulate preventive strategies for the main pathogenic types and dominant species of Salmonella to ensure food hygiene and safety.