Establishment of Growth Predictive Model for Listeria monocytogenes in Salted-duck
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Abstract:
To investigate the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in salted-duck, the four commonly used primary growth dynamics models (Gompertz model, Logistic model, Richards model and MMF model) were used to fit the growth curve of Listeria monocytogenes by determining the growth data at 4 ℃, 10 ℃, 16 ℃ and 25 ℃, respectively. By comparing the determination coefficients (R2) and mean square error (MSE) of each model, the optimal primary growth model was determined. The maximum specific growth rate (μmax) and lag phase (λ) obtained by the primary model were used to establish a temperature-dependent secondary model. The results showed that the growth curve R2 of the Gompertz model was above 0.99, which was the most suitable primary model for the growth of Listeria monocytogene. At 25 ℃, Listeria monocytogenes entered the logarithmic period after 0.78 h. When temperature increased from 4 ℃ to 10 ℃, the growth rate of Listeria monocytogenes in salted duck increased from 0.02 1g(cfu/g)·h-1 to 0.05 1g(cfu/g)·h-1, indicating that temperature had a greater impact on the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in salted ducks. The R2 of the relationship between temperature and μmax established by Ratkowsky square root model was 0.98, and the deviation factor (Bf) and accuracy factor (Af) were 0.99 and 1.01, respectively. The R2 of the relationship between temperature and λ established by the quadratic polynomial model was 0.99, and the Bf and Af were 1.01 and 1.08, respectively. The results showed that the secondary model could describe the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in salted-duck with satisfaction. This study will provide a reference for the food safety and the risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in salted-duck.
