本文以真空冷却后的热烫莴笋菜肴为对象，研究在0 ℃、4 ℃、10 ℃下冷藏的莴笋菜肴的品质变化规律，并建立冷配送莴笋菜肴在0 ℃~10 ℃冷藏温度下的货架期预测模型。结果表明：随着冷藏时间的延长，菌落总数、亚硝酸盐含量、色差a*值呈上升趋势，而硬度呈下降趋势。冷藏温度越高，其品质变化程度越大。亚硝酸盐含量与菌落总数密切相关，但其货架期终点比菌落总数的滞后，而冷藏温度和时间对硬度影响不大，两者均不适合作为冷配送莴笋菜肴货架期评定指标。以色差a*值为指标得到的一级反应动力学方程和Arrhenius方程拟合度较高（R2>0.97），而Logistic模型能很好拟合莴笋菜肴在0 ℃~10 ℃冷藏温度下的菌落总数生长动态（R2>0.99）。建立的色差和菌落总数货架期模型的预测值与实测值之间相对误差均小于10%。其中，以色差a*值为指标的货架期要求最高，若对莴笋菜肴进行护色处理，可提高其色差货架期。

The quality variation rules of cold-chain lettuce dish under refrigeration at 0 ℃, 4 ℃ and 10 ℃ were researched in this paper, and its shelf life prediction model under refrigeration at 0 ℃~10 ℃ was established at the same time with blanching cooking lettuce dish after vacuum cooling as research object. The results showed that the total bacterial count, nitrite content and a* value of lettuce dish were rising with the refrigerated time, while the hardness showed a downward trend. The higher the refrigeration temperature, the greater the quality indicators change. The nitrite content of lettuce dish was closely related to the total number of colonies, but its end of shelf life was later than that of total bacterial count, and refrigeration temperature and time had a little influence on the hardness, so both are not suitable for the evaluation index of shelf life prediction model for cold-chain lettuce dish. The established first-order kinetic model and Arrhenius equation of a* value had high regression coefficients (R2>0.97). Besides, the growth dynamic of total bacterial count of cold-chain lettuce dish under refrigeration at 0 ℃~10 ℃ can well described by Logistic model (R2>0.99). The relative error between predicted value obtained from the developed color or total bacterial count growth prediction model and its observed shelf life was less than 10% respectively. Among them, the requirement for shelf life with a* value as the evaluation index was highest. In addition, color protection can increase the color shelf life of cold-chain lettuce dish.

广东省天然产物绿色加工与产品安全重点实验室资助项目（2010A060801004）