分别在-18、4、25 ℃的贮藏温度下，分析真空包装下烧鹅胸肉的pH值、挥发性盐基氮（Total Volatile Base Nitrogen, TVB-N）、硫代巴比妥酸值（Thiobarbituric Acid Reactive Substances, TBARS）、质构特性、感官评价与菌落总数的变化，采用修正的Gompertz、Arrhenius模型结合动力学方程分别与总菌落数进行拟合，建立货架期模型，并对模型预测精确度进行分析从而验证模型的可行性。分析可知：低温贮藏可以明显缓解肉样的品质下降且可以一定程度上延长其货架期，具体表现减缓了pH值、弹性和硬度的下降，抑制了丙二醛和TVB-N的上升、菌落总数的增长；在25 ℃下TBARS值在贮藏第二周显著增加，对应的菌落总数在该时间段增长速率较快；感官评价分别在贮藏4、3、2周下降至不可接受的标准。基于菌落总数变化拟合的Arrhenius模型回归系数基本在可接受范围内，但是预测值与实际结果对比误差均大于10%，而Gompertz 模型的回归系数R2 均大于0.98，且误差较小，由该模型预测所得的4、15、25 ℃下鹅肉的货架期约为25、12、9 d。所建立的模型可为实时控制贮藏流通条件延长烧鹅胸肉的货架期提供实践指导。

The changes in the pH, total volatile base nitrogen (TVB-N), thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), textural and structural characteristics, sensory score, and total colony count of the deep-fried goose breasts in vacuum packaging stored at -18, 4, and 25 ℃ were determined. To construct a shelf-life model, the modified Gompertz and Arrhenius models combined with kinetic equations were used to fit the total colony counts, and the prediction accuracy of the model was assessed to ensure its feasibility. The analysis reveals thatlow-temperature storage could slow down the deterioration of meat quality and prolong its shelf life to a certain extent i.e. the decreases of pH, elasticity and hardness were slown down, and the increases of malondialdehyde, TVB-N and total colon count were inhibited; At 25 ℃, the TBARS value increased significantly in the second week of storage, and the corresponding total colony counts increased at a higher rate during this time period. The sensory evaluation score of the meat samples declined to an unacceptable levels after storage for 4, 3, and 2 weeks. The regression coefficients of Arrhenius model for the fitting based on total colony counts were basically within the acceptable range, but the variations between the predicted values and the actual results were more than 10%, whilst the Gompertz model's regression coefficients R2 were higher than 0.98 with smaller variations, indicating that the shelf-lifes of the goose meat stored at 4, 15, and 25 ℃ predicted by the model, was were approximately 25, 12, and 9 days, respectively. The established model can provide practical guidance for real-time control of the storage and distribution conditions to extend the shelf life of deep-fried goose breasts.

四川省肉类研究重点实验室开放式基金（22-R-080）