为获得稻花鸡肉腐败菌的Arrhenius货架期预测模型，采用培养基初步筛选与16S rDNA全基因序列鉴定优势腐败菌，研究不同贮藏温度（25、4、0 ℃）下优势腐败菌和菌落总数的生长变化，通过化学反应动力学方程构建菌落总数、假单胞菌和沙雷氏菌货架期预测模型并进行验证。结果表明，稻花鸡肉在贮藏过程中逐渐占主导地位的优势腐败菌是假单胞菌属莓实假单胞菌和肠杆菌科沙雷氏菌属液化沙雷氏菌。稻花鸡肉25 ℃常温贮藏下货架期不超过0.5 d，腐败中后期沙雷氏菌占主导地位，4 ℃冷藏保鲜货架期不超过4 d，假单胞菌和沙雷氏菌均随贮藏时间的延长呈增长趋势，0 ℃冰温贮藏货架期不超过10 d，贮藏后期假单胞菌和沙雷氏菌差异性不显著。利用菌落总数、假单胞菌、沙雷氏菌3个指标建立货架期预测模型，3种货架期预测模型预测值与实测值对比，平均相对误差均在允许范围内，预测效果最佳的是假单胞菌货架期预测模型。菌落总数、假单胞菌和沙雷氏菌货架期预测模型均能对稻花鸡肉的货架期进行真实预测。

To obtain an Arrhenius shelf-life prediction model of Daohua chicken spoilage bacteria, preliminary culture medium screening and complete 16S rDNA gene sequences were used to identify the dominant spoilage bacteria, and the growth changes in the dominant spoilage bacteria and the total number of bacterial colonies under different storage temperatures (25, 4, 0 ℃) were studied. The prediction models for the total number of bacterial colonies and the shelf life of Pseudomonas and Serratia were established and verified based on the kinetic equation of the chemical reaction. The results showed that the dominant spoilage bacteria were Pseudomonas fragi and Serratia liquefaction at different storage temperatures. The shelf life of Daohua chicken under normal-temperature storage at 25 ℃ was less than 0.5 d, and Serratia was dominant in the middle and late stages of decay. The shelf life with refrigeration at 4 ℃ was less than 4 d. Both Pseudomonas and Serratia showed an increasing trend with the extension of storage time. The shelf life with ice storage at 0 ℃ was less than 10 d. There was no significant difference between Pseudomonas and Serratia at the later stage of storage. The shelf-life prediction model was established based on the total number of Pseudomonas and Serratia colonies. The relative errors of the predicted values of the three shelf-life prediction models were all within the permissible range, and the Pseudomonas shelf- life prediction model had the best prediction effect. The results showed that shelf-life prediction models based on the total number of Pseudomonas and Serratia colonies could all predict the shelf life of Daohua chicken.

广东省科技计划项目（2019B020217002；2019B020225001；2021B1212050021）；广东省现代农业产业园项目（(2021)1024）；广东省农业科学院学科团队建设（202122TD）