为建立调理肉饼中特定致腐菌的货架期预测模型。将特定致腐菌乳酸菌接种于经臭氧减菌化处理的调理肉饼中，真空包装后分别于-1 ℃、4 ℃、10 ℃、15 ℃和22 ℃条件下(温度波动为±1 ℃)贮藏，在贮藏期间(0~11 d)测定调理肉饼挥发性盐基氮值、pH值、硫代巴比妥酸值及菌落总数等指标，并进行感官评价，利用修正的Gompertz方程和平方根模型(Bĕlehrádek)，建立以特定致腐菌乳酸菌为关键品质因子的调理肉饼微生物货架期模型。结果表明：修正的Gompertz方程能较好地拟合不同贮藏温度下微生物的生长曲线，应用平方根模型(Bĕlehrádek)描述温度对最大比生长速率(μmax)和迟滞期(Lag)的影响，均表现出良好的线性关系(R2分别为0.98和0.83)。调理肉饼在-1 ℃、4 ℃、10 ℃、15 ℃和22 ℃下乳酸菌货架期最小腐败量对数平均值为(6.94±0.21) lg(cfu/g)，平均最大菌数对数值为(8.65±0.16) lg(cfu/g)，得到了在-1 ℃~22 ℃贮藏温度下调理肉饼的货架期预测模型。预测模型通过10 ℃和15 ℃贮藏温度下的货架期实测值来进行验证，相对误差均小于10%，表明基于平方根方程建立的模型可以有效地预测调理肉饼在-1 ℃~22 ℃贮藏温度条件下的特定致腐菌乳酸菌的货架期

The predictive shelf life model for pork patties affected by specific spoilage bacteria (SSB) was established. The SSB were inoculated into the ozone-treated pork patties, vacuum packaged and stored at -1, 4, 10, 15 and 22 ℃ (temperature fluctuation ±1 ℃). The total volatile base nitrogen (TVB-N), pH and thiobarbituric acid resctive subastances (TBARS) values, the total viable count (TVC), and the sensory scores of the patties were determined during the storage period (0~11 d). Using the modified Gompertz equation and square root model (Bĕlehrádek), a microbial shelf life model of the patties with SSB as the key quality factors was established. The results showed that the modified Gompertz equation seemed to fit better the growth curves of SSB under different storage temperatures, while the square root model (Bĕlehrádek) described the effects of temperature on the maximum specific growth rate (μmax) and the lag phase (Lag). Both of which showed good linearity (R2 as 0.98 and 0.83, respectively). The average logarithmic value of minimum SSB for the pork patties stored at -1, 4, 10, 15 or 22 ℃ was (6.94±0.21) lg (cfu/g), and the average value of lgNmax was (8.65±0.16) lg(cfu/g). Accordingly, the model for patties stored at -1 ℃~22 ℃ was established. The prediction model was validated based on the measured shelf life at 10℃ and 15℃, and the relative error was less than 10%, indicating that the model based on the square root equation was effective for predicting the shelf-life of SSB in pork patties stored at -1 ℃~22 ℃.

山西省重点研发计划项目（201703D221027-2）；山西省自然科学基金项目（201701D121104）