为了延长猕猴桃的储藏时间，保证其新鲜度，需要对猕猴桃储藏过程中各品质的变化情况进行分析，因此对猕猴桃储藏过程中品质变化情况进行模拟预测。构建基于红外光谱的品质变化分析模型，根据该模型获取猕猴桃品质变化预测数据，同时，建立猕猴桃失重率的储藏期预测模型，依据该模型获得猕猴桃在储藏过程中的失重率和最佳货架期。在此基础上，最终得出猕猴桃储藏过程中各品质的变化规律。实验结果表明，运用所设计预测模型得出的储藏过程中猕猴桃各项品质变化值与实际值之间差距较小，其中，猕猴桃样本硬度的预测相关系数是0.806，预测均方根误差是1.112，预测结果符合有效性标准，说明所提模型能够实现对猕猴桃储藏过程中各项品质变化的有效预测，该模型具有实际应用性。

In order to prolong the storage time of kiwifruit and ensure its freshness, it is necessary to analyze the quality changes of kiwifruit during storage. The quality changes of kiwifruit during storage are simulated and predicted in this work. A quality change analysis model based on infrared spectroscopy was constructed. According to the model, the quality change prediction data of kiwifruit were obtained. Tthe storage period prediction model of weight loss rate of kiwifruit was also established. According to the model, the weight loss rate and the best shelf life of kiwifruit during storage were obtained. Furthermore, the change rule of quality of kiwifruit during storage was finally obtained. The results showed that there was a small gap between the quality change value and the actual value of kiwifruit during storage by using the designed prediction model. Among them, the predicted correlation coefficient of kiwifruit sample hardness is 0.806, and the predicted root mean square error is 1.112. The predicted results met the validity criteria, which showed that the proposed model can achieve the validity of the quality change of kiwifruit during storage. The model has potential practical application.

陕西省创新能力支撑计划项目（2018KJXX-095）；陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目（17JK1155）