以糊辣牛肉为实验材料，研究其不同贮藏温度条件下的贮藏特性和贮藏期间各品质指标的Pearson相关系数，建立了货架期预测模型。结果表明：贮藏期间产品pH值先降后升，伴随着菌落总数、TVB-N值和TBA升高，感官品质和硬度下降；贮藏温度越低，产品品质保存越好，货架期越长；在5 ℃、15 ℃、25 ℃、37 ℃和45 ℃货架期分别为16.0 d、12.5 d、8.5 d、3.0 d和1.5 d；不同温度条件下菌落总数与感官品质、pH、TVB-N、TBA和硬度均呈极显著相关（p<0.01）；依据贮藏特性的动态变化，开发出多元回归模型、温度与货架期关系回归模型和tTVB-N、tTVB-N和tHardness动力学货架期模型。通过模型验证发现，温度与货架期关系模型能快速有效预测5 ℃~25 ℃范围内方便菜肴糊辣牛肉货架期，相对误差范围为0.29%~2.36%；5 ℃~37 ℃范围内多元回归模型预测效果较佳，相对误差范围为1.07%~7.89%；tTVB-N、tTVB-N和tHardnes动力学货架期模型预测效果较差。

Using different temperatures for storage of spicy beef, quality indicators and Pearson’s correlation coefficients of quality parameters during storage were evaluated, and a shelf-life prediction model was established. The results revealed that during storage, pH increased after an initial decrease, the total bacterial count, the total volatile base nitrogen (TVB-N) value, and thiobarbituric acid (TBA) value increased, whereas the sensory quality and hardness of spicy beef decreased. Lower storage temperature resulted in better product quality and longer shelf life. The shelf-life values of spicy beef stored at 5 ℃, 15 ℃, 25 ℃, 37 ℃, and 45 ℃ were 16.0, 12.5, 8.5, 3.0, and 1.5 days, respectively. The total bacterial count showed a significant correlation with sensory quality, pH, TVB-N, TBA, and hardness (p<0.01). Multiple regression model, the regression model for the correlation between temperature and shelf life, and kinetic shelf life models (tTVB-N, tTVB-N, and tHardness) were developed based on dynamic changes in product characteristics during storage. Validation of the models revealed that the regression model for the correlation between temperature and shelf life rapidly and accurately predicted the shelf life of spicy beef in a temperature range of 5 ℃~25 ℃, with relative error ranging between 0.29% and 2.36%. Good prediction results were achieved using the multiple regression models within the temperature range of 5 ℃ to 37 ℃, with relative error ranging between 1.07% and 7.89%. The kinetic shelf-life models (tTVB-N, tTVB-N, and tHardness) exhibited poor prediction results.

四川省教育厅重大培育项目（14CZ0033）；烹饪科学四川省高等学校重点实验室基金重点项目（13-PR04）；四川省大学生创新创业训练计划项目（201511552025）；肉类加工四川省重点实验室项目（13-R02）