本文研究了冷却鸡肉工厂实际分割生产线和工艺对冷却分割鸡胸肉菌落总数的影响，探究了不同贮藏温度（0、4、7、10、15、20、25 ℃）下冷却分割鸡胸肉菌落总数的变化，对4 ℃贮藏的冷却分割鸡胸肉的菌落总数、假单胞菌、pH、TVB-N、感官进行相关性分析，确定腐败限量，并结合logistic动力学一级模型和Belehradek二级模型，建立不同温度下冷却分割鸡胸肉货架期预测模型。结果表明：冷却鸡胸肉本身携带微生物并不多，二次污染是导致产品微生物增加的主要原因。预测冷却分割鸡胸肉的腐败限量的菌落总数是5.78 log (cfu/g)，冷却分割鸡胸肉的最大比生长速率和延滞时间与贮藏温度呈良好的线性关系，模型的R2在0.94以上，残差值的绝对值小于0.06。对4、7、10 ℃贮藏条件下的冷却鸡胸肉的货架期预测模型进行验证，相对误差在10%左右，说明该模型能很好的预测冷却分割鸡胸肉的剩余货架期。

The processing of chicken in plants is a source of potential contamination. The effects of the production line and the processes used to cut chilled chicken on the total colony count of chilled chicken breasts were examined. The changes in the total colony count of chilled chicken breasts at storage temperatures of 0, 4, 7, 10, 15, 20, and 25 ℃ were explored. Correlation analysis was conducted on the total colony count, pseudomonas count, pH, total volatile basic nitrogen, and sensory quality to determine putrefaction limitation. Logistic first-order kinetic models and Belehradek secondary square-root models were used to build shelf-life prediction model for chilled chicken breasts under differing temperatures. The results showed that chilled chicken breasts carried a small number of microbes and that secondary pollution was the main reason for the increase in the number of microbes. The limit of total colony count when predicting putrefaction of chilled chicken breasts was 5.78 log(cfu/g). The maximum specific growth rate of the microorganisms in chilled chicken breasts showed a linear relationship with lag time and storage temperature; the R2 value and absolute residue value of the models were above 0.94 and below 0.06, respectively. The shelf-life prediction model of chilled chicken breasts stored at 4, 7, and 10 ℃ were validated, and the relative error was approximately 10%, indicating that this model can accurately predict the remaining shelf-life of chilled chicken breasts.

国家自然科学基金资助项目（U1504331；31401511）